2006 Will Be Stronger 2006 will be stronger in macroeconomic terms than most pundits suggest. I predict a robust 4% annual growth rate vs. the current consensus of around 3.3% As a nation, we are well on the way to spending one trillion dollars in Irag and Afghanistan, with some of that spending stimulating US growth. In addition, we are a few years into one of if not the largest tax cut in history so between these two big levers, the federal government is literally flooding the economy with liquidity. For those of us who pine for the good old days of the 1990s when we had high growth and a balanced budget, the runaway spending is not welcome news. And given the spending is not invested in things like education and scientific development in areas promising new areas like stem cells, areas that will yield long term competitive benefits for the US. But like a patient with a fever who chooses to treat the illness with shots of alcohol, 2006 will feel pretty good. The hangover will be far less pleasant. Paul Holland Silicon Valley March 2006 back to Articles Index